Bitcoin Lost Ground in Three of Four Midterm-Year Q4s Since 2010

Bitcoin (BTC) had negative fourth-quarter returns in three of four U.S. midterm election years since 2010, a short record that contrasts with gains over the year after the last three midterm votes.

BTC rose 391% in Q4 2010. It then fell 16.70% in Q4 2014, 42.16% in Q4 2018 and 14.75% in Q4 2022, leaving 2010 as the only positive year in the four-period comparison.

The figures describe a pattern, not its cause. Four observations do not show that elections drove Bitcoin’s moves; market cycles and liquidity also shaped those periods.

That Q4 record differs from Bitcoin’s 12-month gains after the 2014, 2018 and 2022 midterms. BTC rose 24.5%, 44.9% and 92.3% in those periods, respectively.

The comparisons use different windows: one measures the final quarter of each election year, while the other covers the 12 months after each vote. The Q4 comparison includes four years, and the post-election comparison includes three.

The next U.S. midterm election is scheduled for Nov. 3, 2026.