Unexpected October Fed Hike Could Hit Bitcoin Harder Than December
As of Oct. 20, market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point October increase ranged from about 12% to 17%, while December odds were near 83%.

An unexpected Federal Reserve rate increase in October could trigger a sharper reaction in Bitcoin (BTC) than a December hike, which markets consider more likely.
Bitcoin held relatively steady this week amid volatility in risk assets, supported by recovering spot demand, improved U.S. equity sentiment and short covering as traders closed bearish positions.
U.S. housing indicators weakened in September. Housing starts fell 5.2%, while the pending home sales index dropped 7.3% from the previous month to a record low. The consumer price index and producer price index remained elevated.
As of Oct. 20, market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point October hike ranged from about 12% to 17%. The probability of a December increase was near 83%, making an October move much less anticipated.
Bitcoin remains sensitive to interest-rate expectations, and an unexpected October increase could have a greater impact than a December hike markets more widely expect.