Prediction Market Lists 13% Odds for a SpaceX-Tesla Merger Announcement by Dec. 31

A prediction-market listing put the chance of a SpaceX-Tesla merger announcement by Dec. 31 at 13%, while later contracts carried probabilities as high as 63%.

The listed odds were 24.5% for Feb. 1, 2027; 28.5% for March 1; and 52% for July 1. A separate contract for Jan. 1, 2028, was at 63%.

Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has expressed support for a potential merger and described it as beneficial. Special committees at both companies are reviewing the proposal, but no terms have been agreed. Any deal would require approval from holders of at least 50% of Tesla’s outstanding shares.