TTF Gas Tops 97 Euros Per Megawatt-Hour as Cold Snap Nears

The European TTF natural gas benchmark topped 97 euros per megawatt-hour Monday as a forecast cold snap and low storage raised supply concerns, while warmer U.S. weather pressured futures.

Temperatures in parts of continental Europe are forecast to run two to three degrees Celsius below normal beginning this weekend. Gas storage is about 75% full, compared with a 10-year average near 90% for this point in the season.

The EU has entered the withdrawal period, and inventories fell Oct. 22 for the first time this year. The smaller storage cushion leaves Europe more reliant on international supplies, where it competes with Asian buyers.

Warm weather across the Lower 48 has reduced heating demand, pushing U.S. natural gas futures down to levels last seen in April. October and November combined are forecast to rank as the third-warmest such period in records dating to 1950, reinforcing expectations for a mild winter tied to El Niño. The outlook echoes an earlier forecast for El Niño to curb winter heating demand.

Northeastern China, Japan and South Korea are also forecast to see below-seasonal temperatures. “Joint cold across multiple high-energy-demand regions” is a key market concern, said Andrew Pedrini, a meteorologist at Atmospheric G2.