U.S. Midterms Push Investors to Reassess the 2028 Policy Outlook

The November midterms are feeding into investor expectations for policy debates that could extend through President Donald Trump’s second term and into the 2028 presidential race. Investors are weighing how a change in congressional control might affect fiscal and infrastructure policy, as well as the broader direction of U.S. policy.

If Democrats win both chambers, legislative gridlock could intensify, with the federal budget, debt ceiling and rules for AI data center construction among the likely points of conflict.

Chris Grisanti, chief market strategist at MAI Capital Management, sees Republicans as having a strong chance of retaining the Senate. That outcome could bring stocks a brief relief bounce, though the election’s market impact may not last long.

Rami Sarafa, CEO of Cordoba Advisory Partners, sees possible changes to health care policy and more resistance to AI data center expansion if Democrats gain ground. Because those facilities take a long time to build, Sarafa does not expect an election result to immediately halt the AI investment surge.

JPMorgan’s Center for Geopolitics has identified domestic policy gridlock, Trump’s effort to shape his political legacy and the start of the 2028 presidential campaign as issues to watch after the midterms. Its focus includes Iran and the Middle East, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Latin America and NATO.

Congressional control also matters to digital-asset policy. In comments on the election, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong urged voters to examine where midterm candidates stand on cryptocurrency. The vote is scheduled for Tuesday, Nov. 3.