Prediction Markets Put SpaceX-Tesla Merger Odds at 18.5% by Year-End

Prediction-market contracts put the odds of a SpaceX-Tesla merger announcement at 18.5% by Dec. 31, 2026, versus 66.5% by Jan. 1, 2028, showing how probabilities differ by deadline.

The probability for the year-end deadline had fallen from 20% in recent days. The figures concern separate announcement deadlines and do not mean a merger agreement has been reached.

SpaceX and Tesla have formed committees of independent directors to evaluate a possible merger. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk is recused from their discussions. Any transaction would require approval from both companies’ boards and shareholders, along with regulatory clearance.