S&P 500 Rose in 95% of 12-Month Periods After Midterms Since 1938

The S&P 500 rose in 95% of the 12-month periods after U.S. midterm elections since 1938, with an average return of about 14%, ahead of Tuesday's vote.

The average return during the second year of a presidential term, which is the midterm election year, was about 5%. The figures compare two different periods: the midterm year and the 12 months after the election.

The historical pattern did not depend on which party won. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The figures add another view to TokenPost's earlier coverage of S&P 500 returns across 21 midterm election cycles. The next U.S. midterm election is Tuesday, Nov. 3.