S&P 500 Rose After All 11 Midterms in a 1982-2022 Sample

The S&P 500 rose in the year after each of 11 U.S. midterm elections from 1982 through 2022, averaging a 13.7% gain across those periods. The historical record offers context ahead of the next U.S. midterm vote, but it does not establish what will happen after the next election.

A separate calculation found a 15.1% average one-year price return after midterms since 1950. That measure starts on Election Day and excludes dividends, so the two averages use different samples and are not directly comparable.

Returns during midterm election years themselves were lower on average. From 1931 through 2025, the S&P 500’s average price return was 4.7% in midterm years, compared with 9.5% in other years. Both figures exclude dividends and measure calendar-year returns rather than the period after an election.

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, said, “Once you are through it, it's a big relief and markets tend to do pretty well.”

The historical gains do not show that elections caused them. Interest rates, company earnings and economic conditions also shape market returns. The findings add to an earlier review of 12-month S&P 500 returns after midterms since 1938.

The 2026 U.S. midterm elections are scheduled for Tuesday, Nov. 3.