Polls Put Democrats Ahead 8.9 Points Before Nov. 3 Midterms

Democrats led Republicans by 8.9 percentage points in the national average of congressional ballot polls through Nov. 2, while a polling-error scenario would still leave Republicans in control of the Senate.

Republicans keeping the Senate while Democrats take the House ranked second at 19%. A separate House-control market put the chance of a Democratic takeover at 96%.

Democratic win probabilities stood at 79% for the Senate and 99% for the House.

Polls overestimated Democratic performance in five of the past six elections. A scenario that overstates Democratic support by 3.5 percentage points this cycle would still leave Republicans in control of the Senate.