Decision Desk HQ Calls Talarico Winner in Historic Texas Senate Race

Decision Desk HQ called Democrat James Talarico the winner of Texas' U.S. Senate race Tuesday, a call that would mark the first Democratic win for the seat since 1988, while Nasdaq 100 futures fell 2.18%.

Talarico led Republican Ken Paxton by 11 percentage points, but vote counting was incomplete when the race was called. Dow futures fell 1.24%. The futures declines coincided with the election news; the figures do not establish that the Senate race caused the market move.

Prediction markets priced Talarico's chance of winning at 100% across major platforms.

Texas' large AI infrastructure footprint adds a technology-sector dimension to the election. An estimated 27% of U.S. AI data center capacity, measured in gigawatts, is concentrated in Texas. Texas' regulatory environment, available energy and tax incentives have helped draw data center development. Gov. Greg Abbott paused data center permits in September.

The complete vote count was still underway when DDHQ called the race.