AAOI Falls 7.35%; Serenity Says Laser Shortages Could Persist

Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) shares fell 7.35% Wednesday, Nov. 4, while Serenity argued that high-spec laser shortages may persist even if overall AI optical demand drops 20% to 30%.

Serenity said supply conditions differ across the AI optical chain, so slower data-center construction would not necessarily relieve shortages in high-spec lasers. Serenity also said suppliers of constrained components, including HBM, large substrates, lasers and liquid-cooled transformers, could sell out their capacity even if overall demand declined.

Serenity linked the outlook to wider use of co-packaged optics (CPO) and adoption of near-packaged optics (NPO) by more hyperscalers. Nvidia CEO 黄仁勋 expects optical-component use to reach 15 times current levels as CPO deployment expands, Serenity said. Serenity also cited LITE’s recently secured $5 billion UHP laser contract as evidence of demand.

Serenity said AAOI’s vertical integration and ability to produce 300-to-400-milliwatt lasers could support a shift toward higher-margin standalone laser supply. It described Sivers (SIVE) as a more focused laser-supply bottleneck play, saying the company can produce high-power, multiwavelength NPO/CPO lasers above 200 milliwatts. Serenity previously criticized Sivers’ Nasdaq timing and laser plans.