Oil Futures Fell as Crude Record-High Odds Stood at 8.5%

A crude-oil prediction-market contract put the chance of crude reaching an all-time high by Dec. 31 at 8.5%, while U.S. and international benchmark futures posted steep declines.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell about 7% to $89.40 a barrel, while Brent crude futures declined nearly 8% to $95.41.

The Dec. 31 contract had $72,000 in 24-hour trading volume. A separate contract for April 1, 2027, was priced at 20.5%, with $42,000 in 24-hour volume. The two contracts set different deadlines for the same outcome: crude reaching an all-time high.

An earlier oil-futures decline followed Vice President JD Vance’s remarks that U.S.-Iran talks had advanced. Potential indicators to watch include official statements or diplomatic moves, along with updates from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA).