Vance’s 2028 GOP Nomination Odds Fall as DeSantis Gains

In a prediction market, Vice President JD Vance’s odds of winning the 2028 Republican nomination fell to 31.4% as Nov. 3 midterm results came in, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s rose to 15.5%.

Before election results began arriving, that market priced Vance at about 37%, compared with about 3% for DeSantis. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stood at 19.2%, roughly where he had been before polls closed.

A separate prediction market put DeSantis at 19%, up 14 percentage points. Vance was at 32% and Rubio at 22%, both slightly lower. These are market odds, separate from survey results or declarations of candidacy.

Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress in the midterms. Vance wrote in a Nov. 4 post on X, “The reason we lost is the war.”

A survey of 850 likely Republican primary voters conducted Oct. 12-19 put Vance at 33% and Rubio at 23%. Another 26% were undecided or declined to answer. Neither Vance nor Rubio has announced a 2028 campaign. Rubio has said he would defer to Vance, who said he would discuss a possible run with his wife after the midterms.