U.S. October Payrolls Rise 165,000, Beating Forecast by 100,000

U.S. employers added 165,000 jobs in October, 100,000 above the forecast, as short-term interest-rate futures fell and traders increased bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike in December.

The report was released Friday, Nov. 6. The prior-month adjustment adds to the headline surprise: September's estimate increased by 31,000, and the revised September total combined with October's gain equals 225,000 across the two months. That sum uses the revised September figure, not the original 29,000 estimate.

The immediate market response centered on rate expectations. Short-term U.S. interest-rate futures moved lower after the release, and traders raised December rate-hike bets. The report brought both a stronger October hiring count and an upward revision to September into the policy outlook.

For crypto markets, employment figures feed into expectations for Fed rate cuts and dollar liquidity. Stronger hiring may reduce near-term rate-cut expectations and prompt repricing in rate-sensitive assets. Later revisions will show whether October's 165,000 gain holds, a question underscored by September's upward revision.