Kindig Maintains $2 Million Bitcoin Target, Expects Another Drop

I/O Fund founder and lead tech analyst Beth Kindig expects another large decline in Bitcoin (BTC) over the next several months, even as the firm maintains its undated $2 million long-term target.

Kindig wrote Nov. 6 that “one more large drop is coming over the next several months.” I/O Fund technical portfolio manager Knox Ridley set out two conditional paths for that decline. Neither path is a forecast that Bitcoin will reach $2 million in the near term.

Bitcoin traded at $73,895 on Binance’s spot market at 2:16 a.m. ET (07:16 UTC) Nov. 9. U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $1.28 billion in net outflows over the Nov. 2–6 trading week, despite a $74.6 million net inflow on Nov. 4.

In Ridley’s first path, Bitcoin would fall below $70,315 and then $62,450, strengthening the case for a move toward $30,000. His alternative allows Bitcoin to hold $62,450 and rise to $105,000–$117,925 before a possible decline toward $40,000–$30,000. Both paths depend on price moves that have yet to occur.

I/O Fund introduced its $2 million target Aug. 21. Its long-term chart scenario depends on Bitcoin staying above $25,255 during the bear market, a separate condition from the levels in Ridley’s nearer-term outlook. The firm has given no deadline for reaching $2 million.

Kindig cited dollar strength and Treasury yields in her outlook for tighter global liquidity. She also expects further Federal Reserve rate increases. The Fed held its target range at 3.75%–4.00% on Oct. 28.

The two-year Treasury yield stood at 4.51% at about 3:30 p.m. ET Nov. 6, above its 4.46% reading on Nov. 5 but below the 4.56% recorded Oct. 30. Ridley said a Bitcoin break above $126,300 would signal that the bear market had ended earlier than the fund expected.