Fidelity Warns Solana Revenue Depends on Trading Activity

Fidelity Digital Assets warned that Solana’s future revenue faces risks from trading cycles and competition, even as its spot decentralized exchanges averaged about 15% of traditional exchanges’ trade counts in the 2026 period examined.

The Nov. 6 analysis revisits September’s NYSE trade-count comparison, which showed Solana ahead for the week ended Sept. 13. It also found that Solana’s spot exchanges briefly recorded more weekly trades than the New York Stock Exchange. The analysis does not establish that this was a separate crossover.

The comparison counts executions, regardless of their size. A spot trade on a decentralized exchange is a token swap, while the NYSE count covers securities trades. Frequent small swaps can lift Solana’s count without demonstrating comparable trade value or liquidity. The exchange tally also excludes U.S. equity trades conducted away from exchanges.

A separate comparison of 2026 median weekly spot volume put Solana’s decentralized exchanges below 1% of the dollar volume on either the NYSE or Nasdaq. That figure measures the value of trades, while the 15% figure measures their number. The two comparisons describe different aspects of activity and do not establish Solana’s share of U.S. securities trading by value.

Trading on Solana extends beyond spot token swaps. Exchanges offering perpetual futures on the network processed more than $590 billion in notional volume over the trailing 12 months examined. Notional volume measures the value of futures contracts traded; it is separate from both the spot-trade count and spot dollar volume.

Tokenized equities, Treasury products, commodities and private credit are also among the assets traded on Solana. That wider range of activity matters to the network’s revenue because traders seeking transaction ordering pay priority fees and Jito tips. Those payments respond more strongly to trading activity than base transaction fees.

More trades therefore do not, on their own, establish a steady source of revenue. Demand for transaction ordering can change with market activity, while other trading venues compete for that activity. “Solana’s future revenue is subject to two core risks: the cyclicality of on-chain trading and competitive dynamics,” said Max Wadington, Fidelity’s Senior Digital Assets Research Analyst.