Anthropic Pre-IPO Contracts Imply Share Values 31% to 43% Above IPO Range

Four pre-IPO contracts tied to Anthropic implied share values 31% to 43% above its proposed IPO range’s $78 top around 2 a.m. ET Nov. 11 (7 a.m. UTC).

The contracts showed share-equivalent values from $102.40 to $111.80, while their formulas implied company values ranging from about $1.37 trillion to $1.78 trillion. That valuation gap was roughly $410 billion, but the difference between the lowest and highest share equivalents was $9.40. The figures add a market measure to earlier analysis of Anthropic’s potential valuation.

Anthropic’s amended IPO filing dated Nov. 10 proposed a price range of $70 to $78 per share and projected about 13.09 billion shares outstanding after the offering and a concurrent private placement. Binance’s 1,369 Tether (USDT) quote, multiplied by its original 1 billion-share estimate, implies a company value near $1.37 trillion. Dividing that value by the filing’s share count gives a hypothetical $104.60 share equivalent.

Binance had not announced an adjustment to its share-count estimate or specified which count it would use. On the same filing-based comparison, OKX’s 137 USDT quote corresponds to a $1.37 trillion value on a 10 billion-share basis, or about $104.70 per share when divided by 13.09 billion shares.

On Hyperliquid, trade.xyz’s ANT contract represented one Class A share and traded at $102.40. Entropy’s ANTH contract stood at 1,781, equivalent to a $1.781 trillion valuation under its formula. Dividing that value by an estimated 15.93 billion shares gives about $111.80 per share. The estimate is the sum of three disclosed components: 13.09 billion post-offering shares, about 1.77 billion options and 1.07 billion restricted stock units (RSUs). The filing did not state a single fully diluted share total.

These derivatives are not Anthropic shares and do not give holders shareholder rights. Binance and OKX use estimated share counts to scale their contract values, while trade.xyz prices a contract around one share and Entropy uses a fully diluted valuation formula. Anthropic and its underwriters will determine the final IPO price.