U.S. Treasury Yields Log Biggest Weekly Jump Since April 2025

U.S. Treasury yields are on track for their sharpest weekly rise since April 2025 as markets fully price a Federal Reserve rate increase in December and largely expect another in January, a hawkish shift with implications for crypto markets.

The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.12% Friday, up 26 basis points from the prior week’s close. It has posted its biggest weekly increase since the April 2025 tariff announcement.

The two-year yield, which is more sensitive to rate expectations, climbed 32 basis points this week to 4.85%, its largest weekly gain since late 2024.

U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, more than markets expected. Investors who had rebuilt Treasury holdings in September on expectations that the global bond selloff had ended pulled back after the inflation release, adding to upward pressure on yields.

Markets have fully priced a 25-basis-point rate increase in December, with only a small probability assigned to a 50-basis-point move. A second straight hike in January is largely priced in, compared with 10% odds a week earlier. A third increase by June is also fully priced.