Prediction Markets Put Lutnick’s Exit Odds at 47% by Jan. 1, 2027

Prediction-market contracts on Nov. 13 put the chance that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick would leave his post by Jan. 1, 2027, at 47%, as Congress scrutinizes the administration’s China chip-export policy.

A separate contract put the odds of Lutnick leaving by Nov. 30 at 40.5%. The two figures reflect different departure deadlines.

The scrutiny centers on the administration’s handling of advanced-chip exports to China and its decision not to add certain Chinese firms to the Entity List, the Commerce Department’s trade blacklist. Lawmakers from both parties have raised questions about U.S. trade and technology policy.

Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Chris Coons asked Lutnick to preserve records on Nvidia chip exports to China. Sen. Michael Bennet separately sought an update on the Megaspeed investigation, bringing export enforcement under Senate scrutiny.

Senior White House officials have discussed whether Lutnick should be removed. A White House official has said President Donald Trump remains confident in Lutnick. The deliberations have been part of earlier scrutiny of Lutnick’s position.

Democratic lawmakers set Lutnick a Dec. 1 deadline to provide accountability on the export-control issue. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott requested separate December hearings with former Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and Lutnick.

The Senate Banking Committee’s December testimony requests are part of the broader congressional review.