Ian Buck Leads Kalshi's Nvidia CEO Successor Market at 35%

Nvidia executive Ian Buck leads a Kalshi market on the company’s next CEO, with traders giving him a 35% chance as the chipmaker’s leadership succession comes into focus. The odds make him the market’s top candidate, but they reflect traders’ expectations rather than a decision by Nvidia.

Buck leads Nvidia’s hyperscale and high-performance computing business. His role puts an executive overseeing those operations at the center of a market focused on the company’s next permanent chief executive.

The market follows the reported resignation of CEO Jensen Huang on Thursday. It is framed around a permanent successor to Huang, while Buck’s 35% probability leaves the selection unresolved.

A 35% probability is below a majority, so traders do not treat Buck’s appointment as certain. The figure describes the market’s view of who will lead Nvidia and does not show that the company has selected him. The market gives Buck the strongest chance among potential successors, but the outcome remains open.