CLARITY Act Odds Surge to 64% as Crypto and Banking Leaders Near Stablecoin Deal

Prediction markets are showing renewed confidence that President Donald Trump will sign the CLARITY Act into law this year, with odds climbing to 64% on Polymarket — up sharply from 51% just a day earlier. The surge reflects growing optimism surrounding ongoing negotiations between crypto firms and traditional banking institutions over a key stablecoin yield provision.

At the center of the momentum is a Capitol Hill meeting where industry leaders from both sectors are reviewing revised stablecoin yield language crafted by Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks. The proposed text aims to resolve a long-standing dispute between crypto companies and banks over how stablecoin rewards should be treated under the law. Crypto firms are expected to evaluate the updated draft immediately, with banks set to follow shortly after.

The sticking point has been a provision that previously imposed a broad ban on stablecoin rewards, permitting only activity-based incentives that fall short of traditional deposit interest. Major players like Coinbase pushed back hard against that earlier language, calling it overly restrictive. Coinbase's Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal expressed optimism that both sides could finalize an agreement imminently.

If a deal is reached, the bill's Senate markup could take place this month once lawmakers return from recess, with a floor vote potentially to follow. While concerns remain around DeFi regulations and developer protections within the legislation, Senator Cynthia Lummis has moved to ease those worries. She described the CLARITY Act as the best possible outcome for the DeFi community, emphasizing that developers, validators, and node operators would gain long-awaited legal clarity and safe harbor protections under the new framework.

With bipartisan support building and key stakeholders edging toward consensus, the CLARITY Act appears closer than ever to becoming landmark U.S. crypto legislation.