White House Reviews CFTC Prediction Markets Rule Amid Kalshi and Polymarket Debate

The White House’s regulatory review office is now examining a proposed Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) rule focused on prediction markets, signaling a major step toward federal oversight of platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket in the United States.

According to a recent federal filing on RegInfo.gov, the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA) received the proposed rule on May 26 under Executive Order 12866. The filing identifies the measure simply as a proposed regulation concerning “Prediction Markets,” though the full text of the rule has not yet been released publicly.

The review is widely viewed as one of the strongest indications so far that the CFTC is preparing a comprehensive regulatory framework for event contracts and prediction market platforms. The move follows growing legal and political disputes surrounding sports-based and election-related prediction markets in the U.S.

Several states, including Illinois and New Jersey, have argued that sports event contracts offered by prediction market platforms resemble online sports betting operations. However, Kalshi and the CFTC maintain that federally regulated designated contract markets fall under the agency’s exclusive jurisdiction through U.S. commodities law.

Executive Order 12866 requires significant federal regulations to undergo economic and policy review before publication. OIRA, which operates under the Office of Management and Budget, oversees that process and evaluates the potential impact of major regulatory proposals.

The latest development also comes shortly after President Donald Trump publicly expressed support for the CFTC’s authority over prediction markets. In a Truth Social post previously reported by CoinDesk, Trump said it is “critically important” for the agency to maintain exclusive authority over the sector.

The proposed rule follows the CFTC’s March advance notice of proposed rulemaking, which requested public feedback on whether certain event contracts tied to elections, sports, and gaming should be considered contrary to the public interest.

As the regulatory review process continues, the outcome could significantly influence the future of prediction markets, crypto-based forecasting platforms, and event trading in the U.S. throughout 2026.