Warsh Considers Weakening or Ending the Fed’s Quarterly Dot Plot

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is pushing to reduce public signals about future interest rates, putting the quarterly dot plot under review as policymakers warn that less guidance may unsettle markets.

Warsh favors fewer public indications of where rates may head and wants investors to rely more on economic data when judging the policy outlook. He is weighing a reduced role for the quarterly dot plot or its elimination.

Policymakers have warned that less guidance could leave markets without a reference point and contribute to volatility. They view managing expectations as an important central bank responsibility.

The debate is unfolding alongside a 3.7% year-over-year rise in U.S. consumer prices in September and continued disagreement over the future rate path. The September CPI reading adds context to the discussion over how much transparency the Fed should provide while markets form their own expectations.