SMBC Economist Expects More Fed Rate Hikes After October Meeting

SMBC Americas chief economist Joe Lavorgna expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates after its October meeting, with persistent inflation making a December increase more likely than an October move.

The September producer price index came in hotter than expected. Lavorgna cited demand outpacing supply, robust nominal gross domestic product and the continuing Middle East crisis as factors keeping inflation elevated.

A notable weakening in the labor market could make Lavorgna bearish on the U.S. economy. He pointed to increased firing or decreased hiring as signs of deterioration.

Interest-rate markets have priced in two more Fed increases by Jan. 31, 2027.