Bank of Japan May Raise Inflation Forecast While Holding Rates Steady

The Bank of Japan may raise its inflation forecast for the next fiscal year while holding rates steady at its Oct. 30 meeting as higher oil prices prolong pressure on consumer prices.

The two-day meeting follows a rate increase in September. A further sharp drop in the yen could change the case for a pause by lifting import costs and adding to inflation.

Consumer price increases could persist longer than expected, even though underlying inflation appears little changed. The bank may put greater weight on inflation risks in its quarterly outlook, leaving open a rate increase as early as December.

Japan’s rate path matters to US markets because higher Japanese yields could make yen-funded carry trades more costly for investors who borrow in yen to buy higher-return assets. A shift in those positions could ripple through global funding markets and change investors’ appetite for risk, including in crypto.

The rate decision and quarterly outlook are expected after the meeting ends Oct. 30.