UK Inflation Reaches Nearly One-Year High as Rate Hike Bets Firm

UK inflation accelerated to 3.5% in the year through September, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of England will raise rates at its Nov. 5 meeting.

Consumer prices rose from 3.1% in August, reaching their highest level since October 2025. The increase exceeded economists’ 3.4% expectation and left inflation above the Bank of England’s 2% target.

Transport prices were the biggest contributor to higher inflation in September, particularly motor fuel. Motor fuel prices were 30% higher than a year earlier, compared with a 23% annual increase in August. The Iran war and bottlenecks in the Strait of Hormuz have squeezed global oil and gas supplies.

The latest reading follows an earlier Bank of England policy outlook that focused on inflation control when UK inflation stood at 3.1%. The central bank held its main rate at 3.75% in September and signaled it was prepared to raise rates soon. Most economists expect the rate to reach 4% at the next meeting.

“With inflation increasing, the pieces are falling firmly into place for a November rate rise,” said Suren Thiru, chief economist at ICAEW.

UK Treasury chief John Healey said next week’s budget statement would aim to give businesses and families “some breathing space” from rising living costs. The Bank of England’s next meeting is scheduled for Nov. 5.