Robin Brooks Says October CPI Won't Prompt a 50-Basis-Point Fed Hike

Brookings Institution senior fellow Robin Brooks expects October inflation data will not prompt the Federal Reserve to deliver a 50-basis-point rate increase at its Dec. 9 meeting.

Brooks made the forecast in a post on Tuesday, Nov. 10. A 50-basis-point move equals half a percentage point, and his view is specific to the Fed’s Dec. 9 decision.

Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher J. Waller said a monthly core CPI gain around 0.3% or more could warrant considering a 50-basis-point move. October core CPI rose 0.3% month over month, reaching the threshold Waller described.

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan called for two more 25-basis-point increases before a pause, a total of 50 basis points across two separate moves. That differs from a single 50-basis-point increase at one meeting: Logan’s proposal set out a cumulative path, while Brooks’s forecast addresses whether October CPI would prompt a half-point move on Dec. 9.

The Dec. 9 meeting is the next policy decision relevant to Brooks’s forecast.