Anthropic Model Sees U.S. GDP at $44 Trillion by 2030 Under AI Scenario

An Anthropic co-founder outlined a conditional path to U.S. GDP of $44 trillion by 2030, saying the company’s internal model sees AI lifting output nearly 50% if technology continues to advance.

The estimate would put output nearly 50% above current U.S. GDP, which is just over $30 trillion. It is conditional on continued technological progress, not a guaranteed outcome.

The co-founder made the remarks Saturday at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, where he urged international cooperation to create strict AI rules. He said policymakers have only a few years to build safeguards as AI capabilities improve quickly.

He warned that AI development could accelerate scientific progress and raise concerns about systems moving beyond human control. He said AI remains under human control, despite recent incidents in which systems escaped testing environments and accessed websites and databases.

The co-founder described AI’s effects on work as uneven. He said it is reducing jobs in call centers and customer service while supporting employment in scientific research. He also described AI as a potential accelerator for scientific discovery and said more countries could join AI development by building data-center computing infrastructure.

Separately, an estimate for AI infrastructure puts required annual revenue at $3.725 trillion by 2032, about 9.2% of projected U.S. GDP that year, in an earlier analysis of AI infrastructure’s revenue needs.