Counterpoint Sees Global PC Shipments Falling 27% in Q4 2026

Counterpoint Research expects global PC shipments to fall 27% year over year in Q4 2026, extending a contraction as higher memory and other component costs lift system prices and make replacement purchases harder to justify.

Its preliminary count for Q3 2026 was 57 million units, down 21% from a year earlier and 13.8% from the second quarter. Other estimates put quarterly shipments between 55.4 million and 62.7 million units, with annual declines ranging from 20.1% to 22.4%. Shipment figures count devices sent into sales channels, not how many consumers ultimately bought. TokenPost previously covered the third-quarter PC contraction and shifts in market share.

The cost pressure extends beyond memory. Shortages have also affected storage, processors, graphics cards and other components. DRAM and solid-state drives, which typically account for about 15% of PC costs, now make up nearly 40%. Higher system prices have made replacement purchases harder to justify, while commercial fleet replacements and Windows migration have provided some support for demand.

Buying patterns also shifted demand out of the third quarter. Vendors and sales channels purchased earlier in 2026 ahead of expected memory price increases, leaving less buying for later in the year. The Q3 comparison was also steep because shipments in Q3 2025 had been lifted by purchases ahead of the Windows 10 support deadline and tariff-related inventory adjustments.

Forecasts call for Q4 year-over-year declines between 24% and 27%. Full-year 2027 outlooks range from a 7% drop to broadly flat shipments; Counterpoint expects shipments to remain broadly flat. Counterpoint Associate Director David Naranjo said, “stabilization should not be mistaken for recovery.”