U.S. Power Emissions Could Rise 42% by 2030 if Planned Data Center Projects Proceed

U.S. power-sector carbon dioxide emissions could be 42% higher in 2030 than in 2025 if all planned data center projects proceed. Emissions could reach 2.1 billion metric tons as artificial intelligence drives data center growth.

The expansion could reverse years of progress in reducing emissions from electricity generation. Potential policy responses include moratoriums on new data center construction in Oklahoma and Louisiana. Bills, hearings and public statements from state leaders or utility commissions are among the developments to watch.

A Texas-focused analysis puts that state's power-sector carbon dioxide emissions in 2031 between 251 million and 900 million metric tons across different electricity-demand and power-supply scenarios. In the Texas model, each scenario applies one power arrangement to all new data center demand, while real projects may combine supply sources or face delays and cancellations.