Kalshi Outlines Political-Power Index in S&P Dow Jones Partnership

Kalshi has sketched a possible political-power index for its new collaboration with S&P Dow Jones Indices, adding a specific concept to a partnership that could connect event contracts with financial benchmarks.

In an Oct. 27 post, Kalshi described “an index of political power, bringing together expectations across elections and control of government.” It also listed potential indexes focused on supply-chain risk, artificial intelligence’s effect on employment, sports outcomes and weather risk. The ideas remain proposals; the post did not announce a launch or identify an initial group of contracts.

The political-power concept follows Kalshi’s May introduction of its American Power Index (KPOW). Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour introduced KPOW as a gauge combining market expectations about future political control with current political representation. Its stated weighting assigns 75% to the forward-looking market signal and 25% to current representation. The scale runs from +50D for maximum Democratic control to +50R for maximum Republican control. Mansour wrote that “KPOW aims to be the S&P 500 for politics.”

Kalshi has not said whether KPOW would be part of the S&P collaboration or whether the proposed index would use KPOW’s weighting and scale.

The companies announced the collaboration Oct. 26. Kalshi is to be a preferred licensed platform for event contracts tied to S&P indexes, while S&P DJI is to be a preferred provider for building indexes from Kalshi contract data. Contracts tied to S&P benchmarks are to settle against S&P DJI’s official index values. The agreement’s preferred-platform terms outline those roles.

Kalshi also described potential future products built from the indexes, including ones offering diversified exposure or a way to hedge. No methodology for indexes under the collaboration was disclosed. S&P DJI said it does not sponsor, sell or endorse contracts based on its indexes.

The partnership comes amid competing legal claims over prediction-market oversight. Utah Attorney General Derek Brown announced Oct. 20 that the state’s attorney general’s office had filed suit against KalshiEX LLC and related entities, alleging the contracts violate Utah gambling laws. The CFTC filed suit against Utah on Oct. 27, seeking to block state enforcement against contract markets registered with the agency; it argues federal law preempts Utah’s actions.

The companies did not announce a launch date or an initial contract list.