Bitcoin Faces Third-Worst Week of 2025 as Key Levels Come Under Pressure

Bitcoin (BTC) closed the week at $109,676.05, marking a 5% decline — its third-worst weekly performance this year. The dip capped off September with a flat finish and left the third quarter up just 1%, consistent with the month’s historical reputation as one of the weakest periods for crypto markets.

A major factor influencing price action was the expiration of $17 billion in options on Friday, with a max pain level of $110,000 anchoring BTC close to that price. Another critical threshold is the short-term holder cost basis of $110,775, a level BTC has tested repeatedly in past bull markets. While the cryptocurrency briefly broke below this line during April’s “tariff tantrum,” it has generally held above it, signaling resilience.

From a technical perspective, analysts warn that bitcoin has slipped under its 100-day EMA, with the 200-day EMA near $106,186 acting as the next key support. For the broader uptrend to remain intact, BTC must stay above $107,252, the September 1 low.

Meanwhile, the macro backdrop shows strength in the U.S. economy, which grew at a 3.8% annualized pace in Q2. Inflation data remains controlled, with the core PCE index up 0.2% in August. Treasury yields hover near 4.2%, the dollar index (DXY) sits at long-term support, and silver prices are nearing historic highs. Despite this, bitcoin remains over 10% below its peak.

Bitcoin-related equities are also under pressure. MicroStrategy (MSTR), the largest BTC treasury holder, has underperformed the asset, with its mNAV at 1.44 and implied volatility dropping to multi-year lows. Similarly, Metaplanet (3350) holds over 25,500 BTC but has seen its mNAV fall sharply to 1.12, leaving its share price more than 70% below all-time highs.

With declining volatility and technical pressure, bitcoin investors are closely watching whether support levels hold — a key determinant for the sustainability of the ongoing rally.