XRP Tests $1.30 Support as On-Chain Data Signals Deep Undervaluation

XRP (XRP) is once again testing traders’ resolve as it slips toward a key technical threshold near $1.30, with on-chain data suggesting the token has entered an unusually depressed valuation zone. While such conditions have historically coincided with cyclical bottoms, broader market ‘risk-off’ flows—highlighted by heavy outflows from Bitcoin (BTC) spot ETFs—are keeping sentiment fragile.

As of May 29, 2026 at 5:00 a.m. UTC, XRP traded at $1.3089, up 2.10% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap. The rebound did little to offset recent weakness: XRP remains down 4.34% over seven days and 6.15% over 30 days. Daily trading volume stood near $2.09 billion, suggesting liquidity remains available even as sellers continue to lean on the market.

CryptoBriefing reported that XRP briefly fell about 4% below the $1.30 area, putting a widely watched support level at risk. Analysts are increasingly focusing on $1.10 as the next major downside level, warning that a clean break below it could accelerate losses as stop orders trigger and leverage unwinds.

The pullback is pronounced in a longer-term context. XRP is still more than 65% below its July 2025 peak of $3.66. Returning to that high would require a roughly 186% rally from current levels—an increasingly tall order without a clear shift in macro liquidity and risk appetite across digital assets.

On-chain analytics firm Santiment pointed to signs of capitulation among recent participants. The firm estimated that traders active over the last 30 days are sitting on average losses of about 47%, a pattern it associated with ‘capitulation’ behavior—investors selling into weakness after sustained drawdowns.

More notably, Santiment said XRP’s 30-day MVRV (market value to realized value) has fallen to its lowest level since December 2020. MVRV compares current market capitalization with the aggregate cost basis implied by on-chain realized value; readings that plunge into extreme negatives are often interpreted as ‘deep undervaluation’ relative to recent holders’ entry prices. Santiment described the current zone as an ‘extreme undervaluation’ regime, though it cautioned that depressed valuation alone does not guarantee an immediate reversal.

Prediction markets are echoing that caution. On Axiom Protocol, traders priced the probability of XRP reaching a new all-time high in 2026 at 18.1%, reflecting skepticism that a sustained bull leg will materialize in the near term. The same venue put the odds of XRP sliding to $1.20 within May at 21.5%, underscoring that bettors see meaningful downside risk still on the table.

Separate from price action, a policy debate has resurfaced around how staking rewards could be taxed in the U.S. if the XRP Ledger (XRPL) were to introduce ‘native staking’ in the future. Pluang reported that Ripple’s former CTO David Schwartz revived discussion on whether staking rewards would be taxed as income upon receipt or taxed only upon sale—an issue that has been contentious across multiple blockchain ecosystems. The debate remains hypothetical for XRPL, which does not currently offer native staking, but it highlights how product design and regulatory interpretation can shape adoption incentives and investor behavior.

XRP’s pressure is also being amplified by macro-driven de-risking across crypto markets. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw roughly $733 million in net outflows recently, including about $528 million in a single day from BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ($IBIT). Such moves typically coincide with tightening ‘liquidity conditions’ and reduced appetite for higher-beta tokens, which can weigh on majors and altcoins alike regardless of project-specific fundamentals.

Amid rising volatility in the XRP/USD pair, Manila Times and GlobeNewswire noted that more traders are turning to AI-powered automated trading bots to manage rapid swings. That trend often accompanies unstable markets, as participants seek systematic execution and risk controls when discretionary trading becomes more error-prone.

For now, XRP sits at the intersection of conflicting signals: on-chain metrics flashing potential ‘oversold’ conditions, while market structure and macro flows continue to point to downside fragility. In the near term, traders are likely to treat the $1.10 level as the decisive line, with the direction of broader crypto liquidity—especially ETF flows—remaining a key barometer for whether XRP can stabilize or slide further.