Fidelity Says Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Show Strong Conviction Despite Bear Market

Fidelity Digital Assets believes Bitcoin's long-term holders are showing one of the strongest signs yet that investor conviction remains intact despite the ongoing market downturn. According to research analyst Zack Wainwright, nearly 15 million BTC have remained untouched for at least 155 days, a level that historically reflects strong holder confidence and often aligns with major market cycle turning points.

Fidelity noted that long-term holder supply typically grows during bear markets as investors accumulate and hold, then declines during bull markets as profits are realized. This supply reached a record high on July 5, 2026, even as Bitcoin continued trading well below its previous peak.

The report also revealed that nearly 40% of long-term holders are currently sitting on unrealized losses. Despite this, most have chosen not to sell, reinforcing the view that many investors remain committed to Bitcoin's long-term outlook.

Bitcoin is currently trading about 50% below its October 2025 all-time high above $126,000. Wainwright pointed out that previous bear markets saw declines of 70%, 80%, and even 90%, suggesting the current cycle may reflect a more mature market with stronger investor resilience.

"A variety of on-chain metrics are approaching levels historically associated with Bitcoin's market cycle bottoms," Wainwright wrote. "Whether these signals ultimately mark a turning point remains to be seen, but the long-term holder data appears consistent with that sentiment."

Fidelity stopped short of declaring that Bitcoin has reached its ultimate bear market bottom but said the data increasingly resembles conditions seen near previous cycle lows.

Separately, Benjamin Cowen, a member of BeInCrypto's Market Intelligence experts council, expects Bitcoin to establish a market bottom during the fourth quarter. Based on seasonal patterns, he believes the cryptocurrency could fall toward $44,000 before beginning its next recovery.

Investors are also watching August closely. Historically, the month has delivered negative returns during the last three U.S. midterm election years, with Bitcoin posting losses ranging from 15% to 18%, making it a key period for determining whether the current bear market is nearing its end.