Bitcoin Options Skew Bullish as $9.6 Billion Expiry Nears Max Pain Level

Bitcoin (BTC) options positioning on Deribit is tilting decisively bullish into Friday’s expiry, with call contracts dominating open interest and recent trading flows—an indication that traders are still leaning toward upside scenarios even as spot prices hover near a key “max pain” level.

As of 2:30 a.m. ET on July 31 (6:30 UTC), data from Deribit—the largest crypto options exchange—showed total open interest in Bitcoin options expiring that day at 149,267 contracts, representing roughly $9.60 billion in notional value. Calls accounted for 115,954 contracts versus 33,312 puts, putting the put/call ratio at 0.29. In options markets, a put/call ratio below roughly 0.7–0.8 is commonly read as a ‘bullish’ skew, while readings above 1 tend to suggest more defensive or bearish positioning.

Deribit’s estimated “max pain” level—the strike price where option buyers collectively face the greatest losses at expiry—was cited at $64,000. With Bitcoin trading near $64,000, the market appears to be navigating a zone where hedging flows and dealer positioning can amplify short-term volatility into settlement.

Open interest was most heavily concentrated in the $72,000 call, suggesting traders continue to price in a meaningful chance of a renewed push higher. Large open interest was also visible in the $70,000 and $80,000 call strikes, reinforcing a view that positioning remains oriented toward a potential upside break rather than a deep retracement.

That optimistic skew is not limited to the front expiry. Across all maturities, the $72,000 call again stood out as the largest open-interest cluster, followed by sizable positioning at $70,000 and $80,000. The distribution implies that many traders are keeping ‘upside exposure’ on the books not only for near-term catalysts but also into longer-dated timeframes.

Flow data over the past 24 hours broadly matched the open-interest picture. Put volume totaled 8,358.2 contracts versus call volume of 12,475.3 contracts, for a 24-hour put/call ratio of 0.67. While less extreme than the open-interest skew, the reading still signals that ‘bullish’ demand modestly outpaced downside hedging, consistent with a market that is leaning toward continuation rather than reversal.

The most actively traded contracts over the last day included the $72,000 call (Aug. 14), $70,000 call (Aug. 28), $60,000 put (Aug. 7), $79,000 call (Aug. 28), and $75,000 call (Dec. 25). In addition, open interest was cited as concentrated around expiries on July 31 (call-heavy), Sept. 25 (call-heavy), and Dec. 25 (call-heavy), underscoring continued preference for upside structures across the curve.

Spot prices, however, were largely unchanged at the time of the snapshot. According to TokenPost Market, Bitcoin traded at $64,330, down 0.01% on the day as of 2:30 a.m. ET. The contrast between a flat spot tape and call-heavy positioning suggests traders may be expressing a view that volatility can reawaken around catalysts—while still treating dips as opportunities to position for potential upside breakouts.

Options are derivatives that allow investors to take leveraged exposure to price moves or hedge existing holdings. A ‘call option’ represents a bullish bet on the underlying asset, while a ‘put option’ reflects positioning for downside. ‘Open interest’ measures the total number of outstanding contracts in the market.