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Market-Implied Odds Show 54.2% Chance of October Fed Hike
The probability of a 25-basis-point increase exceeds the 45.8% chance that the Federal Reserve will leave its target range unchanged.
Market-implied odds show a 54.2% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise its target range by 25 basis points at its October meeting, versus 45.8% for no change.
If policymakers hold rates, the target range would remain at 3.75% to 4%.
By December, the probability of the range remaining unchanged is 10.8%. The odds of a cumulative 25-basis-point increase are 47.8%, while the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point increase is 41.4%.
