Odds of October Fed Rate Hike Rise to 69.7% as Bets Shift
The probability of holding rates at 3.75%-4% stands at 30.3%, while pricing points to further tightening by December.
Market pricing has lifted the probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in October to 69.7%, marking a sharp shift in expectations for U.S. interest rates and financial markets.
The implied probability of keeping the federal funds rate at 3.75%-4% during the October meeting is 30.3%. By December, the odds of rates remaining in that range fall to 6.5%.
Pricing assigns a 38.7% probability to one cumulative 25-basis-point hike by December and a 54.8% probability to two cumulative hikes. That would place the policy rate at 4.25%-4.5%.
Expectations for an October increase have moved higher since the Sept. 17 policy decision, rising from 40.1% to 49.8%, then reaching 57.6% and 53.1% before the latest 69.7% reading.
