Polymarket Odds Put October Fed Rate Hold at 59% Ahead of Key Data
The hold probability rose 28% in 24 hours, while the odds of a 25-basis-point hike fell to 42%.
Polymarket odds put the probability of the Federal Reserve leaving interest rates unchanged in October at 59%, as traders await U.S. labor and inflation data that could shape the policy outlook.
The hold probability rose 28% over the past 24 hours. At the same time, the odds of a 25-basis-point rate increase fell 27% to 42%.
U.S. September ADP employment data is scheduled for release at 8:15 a.m. ET (12:15 p.m. UTC) on Wednesday, followed by the Federal Reserve’s closely watched August personal consumption expenditures data later in the day. The market expects core PCE inflation to remain at 3.3% year over year.
The competing market-implied probabilities reflect expectations for the Federal Reserve’s October rate decision ahead of the incoming employment and inflation readings.
