Polymarket Alpha Group Estimated to Earn About $40 Million Since 2024

A private group of about 30 mostly Gen Z students is estimated to have earned about $40 million trading on Polymarket since 2024, contrasting with losses among most manually operated accounts on the prediction market’s international platform.

The invite-only Discord group, called Alpha, pools research and trading. Members wager on weather, U.S. elections and conflicts involving Ukraine and Iran, using historical data to build probability models.

One recent Oxford graduate had $750,000 in his account at graduation, despite receiving a lower second-class honors degree (2:2). The Oxford graduate recalled spending hours switching between Polymarket and Discord during a holiday with his girlfriend.

The group’s estimated earnings stand apart from results for individual traders. Of 2.9 million manually operated accounts on Polymarket’s international platform, 69.2% finished below break-even, with combined losses of $338.9 million. The median account lost about $3.

Automated accounts had different results. About 125,000 such accounts, or 4.1% of the total, collectively made $246.8 million and placed 80.8% of platform orders.