Kalshi’s 2027 Recession Market Shows 22% Odds for U.S. Downturn

Kalshi’s market for a U.S. recession in 2027 displayed 22% odds on Oct. 6, offering a snapshot of trading around a specific economic outcome rather than an official forecast.

Yes contracts were priced at 21 cents. The market listed Jan. 31, 2028, as the maximum payout date.

The price reflected market trading at the time and can change as traders buy and sell contracts. It does not establish whether the U.S. economy will enter a recession.