Polymarket Odds of Anthropic Fable 5.2 Release by Oct. 12 Fall to 17%

Polymarket’s implied probability that Anthropic will release a qualifying Fable model by Oct. 12 fell to 17% at 2:28 a.m. ET (06:28 UTC) Thursday.

The contract’s implied probability fell 31% over 24 hours. It resolves “Yes” if Anthropic makes a model publicly available between the contract’s creation and the deadline, measured in Eastern time.

To qualify, the model must include “Fable” in its name or identifier and carry a version number of 5.2 or higher. A formal launch, public testing or an open rolling waitlist counts as public availability.

Closed testing and private access do not qualify. A version name or placeholder shown on Anthropic’s website also does not qualify if the model has not been made publicly available.

Fable 5.2, 5.3 and 6 are examples of versions that meet the stated criteria. Models without “Fable” in their names or identifiers do not qualify.

The contract deadline is Oct. 12.