Polymarket’s 2026 Nobel Peace Prize Market Reaches $27.36 Million

Polymarket’s 2026 Nobel Peace Prize market has reached about $27.36 million in trading volume, surpassing last year’s roughly $21.46 million total ahead of the winner’s announcement.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee is scheduled to announce the winner at 5 a.m. ET (09:00 UTC) on Oct. 9. Contracts will be settled based on the winner announced by the committee.

Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms had the highest implied probability at 15.4%. Mykola Kuleba followed at 8.5%, while Save the Children stood at 7.4%.

The activity follows an unusual odds move in last year’s market. María Corina Machado’s implied probability was about 3.6% roughly 10 hours before the 2025 announcement. Polymarket’s recorded prices then showed her odds at 10.8% 10 minutes later, 39% at the next recorded interval and 72.8% about 80 minutes after the initial reading.

Contracts on Machado’s victory recorded about $2.24 million in trading volume. Machado received the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize for supporting democratic rights in Venezuela and seeking a peaceful transition from authoritarian rule.

The Norwegian Nobel Institute has focused on preventing any future disclosure before the prize announcement. The 2026 winner will be announced in Oslo on Oct. 9.