OpenAI IPO Odds Fall to 55.4% After Company Rules Out 2026 Listing

A prediction market now gives OpenAI a 55.4% chance of reaching at least a $1.5 trillion market capitalization at an IPO by Dec. 31, 2027, after the company ruled out going public in 2026.

The probability is down from a previously reported roughly 80%. The same market assigns a 23.5% chance to OpenAI having no IPO by the deadline and lists $409,002 in total volume. The odds can change continuously.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said Sept. 12 that the company would not go public in 2026.

“I actually think that, given everything happening with safety, right now would be an ill-advised moment to go public, and we don’t feel pressure on that,” Altman said. “I would say not 2026, yeah. We got a lot of stuff to do.”

The $1.5 trillion threshold is above OpenAI’s $852 billion post-money valuation from a funding round that closed March 31. OpenAI said the round included $122 billion in committed capital.

The company also said its revenue reached $2 billion per month in March, an annualized pace of about $24 billion at the time. Its revolving credit facility had been expanded to approximately $4.7 billion and remained undrawn at closing.

The market measures expectations for IPO timing and closing valuation. It does not establish a new private-market valuation for OpenAI. Earlier OpenAI valuation market coverage tracked a lower threshold tied to the company’s private-market valuation.