Polymarket Gives Kimberly Guilfoyle 70% Chance of Leaving U.S. Ambassador Post by Oct. 31

Polymarket showed a 70% probability that Kimberly Guilfoyle would stop serving as U.S. ambassador to Greece by Oct. 31, as questions about her position drew attention in Washington.

The figure was displayed at 12:17 a.m. ET (4:17 a.m. UTC) on Oct. 12. A separate contract placed the probability of Guilfoyle leaving by Dec. 31 at 79%.

The market opened Sept. 30, 2026, at 5:34 a.m. ET and had generated $63,698 in trading volume. Its contracts cover both resignation and removal. An announcement before a deadline can qualify even if the departure occurs later.

A senior U.S. official said President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio were considering firing Guilfoyle. The official said the two were likely to decide what action to take during the week after the Columbus Day holiday and described Trump as “extremely pissed off.”

A second U.S. official said the State Department inspector general was looking into allegations involving Guilfoyle. The official could not confirm whether a formal investigation had begun.

The second official said the allegations under review involved a request for a $100,000 credit-card payment from a donor in exchange for access to administration officials, promotion of a Greek company’s interests and acceptance of private travel or other benefits. Guilfoyle’s lawyers denied wrongdoing and said the money concerned unpaid fees for public appearances and speaking engagements before her nomination.

Rubio visited Athens in early October and declined to verify or discuss the allegations. “It’s not the gospel. It’s not the gospel for me,” Rubio said. He also said, “Our ambassador has been a strong ambassador here.”

The Senate Congressional Record lists Kimberly Guilfoyle as nominated to be ambassador extraordinary and plenipotentiary to Greece.

The market reflects trader positioning on whether Guilfoyle will leave the post; it does not establish that she will depart or that the allegations are true. TokenPost has previously examined prediction-market trading patterns.