Bitcoin’s Correlation With 10-Year Treasury Real Yields Tops 0.6

Bitcoin (BTC) market capitalization and the 10-year U.S. Treasury real yield had a record correlation above 0.6 in 2026, showing a stronger relationship as borrowing costs and federal debt remained elevated.

The measures had a limited relationship historically, then moved into positive correlation in recent years. A real yield accounts for expected inflation; the yield on 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) is one measure. Correlation ranges from -1 to 1, with higher positive values indicating that two measures tend to move in the same direction. Here, the comparison is between Bitcoin’s market capitalization and real yields, not daily Bitcoin returns, and it does not establish that one caused changes in the other. The correlation measure and its limits are relevant when comparing it with other rate measures.

From Aug. 14 to Oct. 14, the 10-year nominal yield rose from 4.68% to 5.19%, an increase of 0.51 percentage point, or about 11% relative to its starting level. The real yield rose from 2.41% to 2.84% over the same period, while Bitcoin gained about 29.6%. Those simultaneous moves align with a positive correlation, though they do not show that Treasury yields drove Bitcoin’s market capitalization.

The 10-year nominal yield closed at 5.31% on Oct. 5, above its prior Bitcoin-era high of 4.98% on Oct. 19, 2023. The real yield reached 2.95%, topping its previous high of 2.52% from Oct. 25, 2023. By Oct. 16, the yields had eased to 5.09% and 2.74%, respectively.

Federal debt totaled $40.39 trillion on Oct. 15. Final fiscal 2026 figures put net interest outlays at $1.052 trillion, below Medicare spending of $1.073 trillion. Interest outlays had exceeded Medicare during the fiscal year’s first 11 months, before finishing about $21 billion lower for the full year.

The federal deficit reached $1.992 trillion in fiscal 2026, up from $1.775 trillion in fiscal 2025. Revenue rose 3.2% to $5.40 trillion, while spending increased 5.5% to $7.40 trillion. Net interest outlays rose 8.4% year over year.