XRP’s year-end $2 odds jump 13 points in a day to 30%

XRP’s probability of reaching $2 by year-end jumped 13 percentage points in one day to 30% on prediction market Kalshi. Bitcoin’s odds of topping $100,000 by year-end stood at 24%, while its chance of reaching $87,500 by the end of October was 32%.

Year-end probabilities diverged across the three major cryptocurrencies.

As of 10:45 UTC on Oct. 18, Kalshi put bitcoin’s probability of reaching $100,000 by year-end at 24%, unchanged from a day earlier. The probability of reaching the higher $120,000 level was 5%.

Ether’s chance of reaching $3,500 by year-end fell 2 percentage points in a day to 14%, while XRP’s probability of hitting $2 rose 13 points to 30%.

XRP’s year-end outlook has fluctuated sharply. The probability stood at 18% on Aug. 20, climbed to 61% on Sept. 23 and has since retreated to 30%.

The near-term outlook remained subdued. Bitcoin had a 32% chance of reaching $87,500 by the end of October, a level 6.6% above its current price. The probability of reaching $90,000 was 21%.

Ether’s probability of reaching $3,000 this month was 5%, while XRP’s highest month-end probability was 16% for $1.60.

At the same time, CoinGecko data showed bitcoin trading at $82,106, up 0.69% from a day earlier. Ether was down 0.64% at $2,420.22, while XRP fell 0.59% to $1.30.

This article is based on market data and chart analysis and does not constitute investment advice.