Anthropic Leads 2026 IPO Announcement Market With 75% Odds

Anthropic led Kalshi’s 2026 initial public offering (IPO) announcement market at 75% on Oct. 19, the only company above 50% among 23 companies whose contracts remained open to trade.

The market counts three events as a formal announcement: the SEC declares a company’s Form S-1 effective, the offering is priced or an exchange assigns the shares a ticker. Anthropic confidentially filed a prospectus with the SEC in early June, but that filing alone does not meet the contract’s stated threshold.

The Oct. 19 Kalshi figure concerns the contract’s formal announcement milestones. It does not establish a listing date.

OpenAI’s 2026 contract stood at 3%. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman ruled out going public in 2026 in September. Kalshi traders assigned OpenAI 50% odds of reaching a formal IPO announcement milestone by June 2027.

Other companies’ 2026 odds have dropped as well. Plaid was at 10% after standing at 50% in January. Deel had fallen to 3% from 50% in February, while Databricks stood at 1% after exceeding 50% in January.

Several planned offerings across industries have been postponed in recent weeks. The number of U.S. IPOs priced so far this year was down 33% from 2025, although total proceeds rose sharply. Large offerings, including SpaceX’s June listing, helped lift the amount raised despite the lower IPO count.

Anthropic generated $16.8 billion in third-quarter revenue. Its growth from the previous quarter was slower than in earlier periods, adding a separate measure of the company’s performance to the market’s focus on IPO timing.

Kalshi’s 75% figure reflects trading expectations and can change. For its 2026 contract to resolve positively, one of the specified announcement milestones must occur by year-end.