Polymarket Contract Put Tesla-SpaceX Merger or Acquisition Odds at 23%

A Polymarket contract on whether Tesla or SpaceX will announce a merger or acquisition by year-end showed a 23% implied probability in an Oct. 21 snapshot, with settlement tied to an announcement rather than a completed transaction.

The contract resolves “Yes” if either company announces by 11:59 p.m. ET Dec. 31, 2026 (04:59 UTC Jan. 1, 2027) that the companies will combine, are combining or have completed a merger or acquisition. The deal does not need to close before the deadline. A consensus of credible news reports may also establish the outcome.

A partial equity purchase counts only if the buyer gains control of the other company, generally through ownership of more than 50% or equivalent control. Transactions without a transfer of control do not qualify.