Polymarket Prices Defined AI Downturn Odds at 9.4% by Dec. 31, 2026

Polymarket priced the chance of a defined AI industry downturn by Dec. 31, 2026, at 9.4% late Wednesday, based on a contract with six specific triggers. The terms require at least three of them to occur within the same 90-day window before the deadline.

At 10:04:57 p.m. ET Oct. 21 (02:04:57 UTC Oct. 22), the “Yes” outcome was priced at 9.4 cents and “No” at 90.6 cents. The contract deadline is 11:59 p.m. ET Dec. 31. Its prices reflect that market snapshot and the contract’s rules.

The six triggers are separate conditions: Nvidia’s closing price falling 50% from its all-time high; the iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) falling 40% from its all-time high; OpenAI or Anthropic declaring bankruptcy; OpenAI being acquired; H100 rental prices reaching $1 or less for five consecutive days on the SiliconData index; or one of five named AI hardware suppliers falling 50% from its all-time high.

Those suppliers are Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, ASML, Broadcom, Arista Networks and Super Micro Computer. A broad decline in AI-related stocks by itself would not meet the contract’s test. The Dec. 31 contract had $2,488,728.49 in trading volume.

The market price is an implied probability tied to this contract’s criteria. It does not show that a downturn has already happened or capture every investor’s outlook on AI.

Citadel founder and CEO Ken Griffin said Oct. 20, “Any radical transformation of our economy is generally intertwined with a bubble.” The contract’s deadline is Dec. 31, 2026.