Polymarket Odds Put Predict.fun FDV One Day After Launch Above $800 Million

A market contract on Polymarket assigned a 74% probability to Predict.fun’s governance token exceeding an $800 million fully diluted valuation (FDV) at a specified point after a qualifying launch.

At 1:19 a.m. ET (05:19 UTC) Thursday, Oct. 22, the probability stood at 74%, up 60% over the preceding 24 hours. The contract concerns a future token valuation, not Predict.fun’s current value. It defines FDV as the token’s total supply multiplied by its price.

A launch qualifies only if the token can be publicly transferred and traded. The valuation check takes place at 4 p.m. ET on the calendar day after launch, with settlement based on the price source with the most liquidity. For a “Yes” result, the measured FDV must exceed $800 million; otherwise, the contract resolves “No.”

If the token has not launched by 11:59 p.m. ET Dec. 31, 2027, the contract resolves “No.” TokenPost previously covered a market on Predict.fun’s post-launch valuation.